The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Stick to the plan.
Like so many previous days, the news was yawn-worthy and the economic data was uninteresting. Momentum continued from last week and the S&P 500 printed new all-time highs today, as did the NASDAQ-100. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still needs to climb about 1,000 more points to print its all-time highs. Treasury yields fell modestly today, helping justify stock valuations. The expectations for Fed cuts are climbing too, with markets pricing 67 bips of cuts for the year today.
June’s final session delivered a modest gain and the month was quite a winner. The S&P climbed 5% this month. That’s a pretty result for the bulls. Going back to 1970, that’s an 85-percentile month. For the year, the index is up about 5.5%.
Since narratives and feelings are driving the market presently, we should remember two things:
The narrative is that it’s a bull market
Bull markets deliver double digit returns each year
Let me be clear. It doesn’t matter if the above is factually accurate or not. Even if it is, those facts don’t imply future returns.
*That said.*
Those bullet points are the psychological levers of the market. Investors are putting capital to work with the assurance (to themselves) that the above is metaphysical certainty. And so bids get lifted and prices climb and perception becomes reality.
I’m not complaining, I’m explaining. We are going up. We are going up because the majority of stock market players *think* we are going up. That dynamic will not change randomly. It will only change because of a massive, negative event.
Until then, buy every dip. Buy every rip. Buy buy buy! Just buy the hot stocks because if you think market leadership is just going to change for change’s sake, you are mistaken.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is general educational information and market commentary and is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.
All market and economic data herein is as of the date hereof and sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The information is subject to change without notice and we have no obligation to update you.
This general market commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The views and opinions expressed constitute the author(s) judgment based on current market conditions, are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other employees of Visdom Investment Group LLC ("Visdom") and Visdom. Past performance and any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable and have sought to take reasonable care in its preparation; however, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Any securities referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by Visdom or by the author(s) in this context. The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision. This information does not constitute Visdom research, nor should it be considered a recommendation of a particular investment strategy or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Investing involves market risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Visdom and its affiliates do not provide legal, tax or account advice so you should seek professional guidance if you have questions.
