The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Yo-yo.
The S&P swung around quite a bit today. It started +30 after PPI data (3.3% vs 3.5% est & 3.0% prior) printed much cooler than expected. Good vibes from the good inflation data didn’t last long and the index fell steadily until lunch, printing the intraday low then, -30 points. Queue the bulls at that point. The index climbed steadily to +20 into the mid-afternoon, only to roll over again in the late afternoon. Headlines weren’t the cause of these gyrations. Yields weren’t obviously to blame today either. The market went up and down, fairly abruptly, a few times on its own.
The intraday indecision amongst investors is a bit odd. 2023 and 2024 were characterized by fairly consistent trends. Intraday trends tended to hold…maybe there’d be a reversal here and there. Multi-session trends were common. Both years resulted in large gains without scary drawdowns. January 2025 is not looking like those past years.
The intraday momentum players aren’t riding/causing a single intraday trend anymore. Look at today’s chart.
I’m sure some momentum guys are playing each leg but most are probably getting stopped out. By the time they go the other way, they probably get stopped out again. They are likely getting chopped up.
Not that we should shed a tear for the intraday momentum guys… but when the market isn’t expressing a larger and consistent trend intraday, maybe that’s a signal about how the market will behave over time?
The rising tide of 2023 an 2024 was felt during most sessions intraday. The lack of a tide this year gives me pause.
It may not matter since earnings season kicks off tomorrow before the open. Everything will be up for grabs depending on how the season is perceived.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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