The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Confusion.
Markets wanted to bounce this morning. Futures were +10 and the S&P 500 opened +15. The index rallied throughout the morning and peaked before lunch, around +55. The index chopped around during lunch but started to roll over after President Trump made some confusing comments regarding tariffs. Once downside momentum grew, the S&P didn’t stop dropping until it was almost 80 points below the intraday high. It clawed back to flat in the afternoon and limped into the close. Yields came in small and Fed Funds futures now price 59 bips of Fed cuts for the year.
Despite the risk-off action that appears rooted in the latest tariff talk, the trading today is uninteresting and not meaningful. What matters is what Nvidia says after the close. That’s it.
The market is presently stalled. The bulls want to resume the northward journey but they can’t do it without a cause. The bears want to break the market lower and test some downside technicals. They’ve made progress for a week but they can’t do anything more unless they get a catalyst.
Nvidia is the event. Either the bulls are going to gun this market to new all-time highs or the bears are going to send us downward for a while. There’s no in between and all other narratives and stories are in the backseat.
So let’s see what NVDA says and does. And as a reminder, the after hours trading isn’t what matters. What matters is how NVDA and the market behaves tomorrow morning.
See you then.
-Mike
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