The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Head-scratching.
Investors didn’t know what to do today. Futures started down, they rallied in the premarket. The S&P 500 opened up about 10 points. We chopped around and dipped about 50 points during the midday. Then we recovered all the losses and closed about where we opened. News was a snooze and capital flow was ridiculously light at 75%. Yields didn’t move much and Fed Funds cuts in 2025 are now priced at 94 bips. The last time the market expected more than 93 bips of cuts was April 7th. That’s an official hmmm.
Today was a ho-hum affair so there’s not much to discuss. We are coming up on the end of the month and the S&P is only down 1.5%. This could attract some capital as the longs and the money managers likely perceive that the bounce is behind us and *maybe* the index can squeak out a gain by the month-end close. End-of-month shenanigans are not usually something one can count on but given how nutty this month has been, there is likely a significant chunk of capital looking to go to work at the end of the month. Will markets front-run that? We’ll see.
With capital flows so light, it doesn’t look like money has started to move yet. I suppose waiting for the next big headline makes sense but the opportunity is to get ahead of the news. Is the next big headline, which is almost certain to be tariff-talk from President Trump, going to be positive or negative?
I have no idea but I suspect *most* people think he’s on a conciliatory trajectory.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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