The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Maybe tomorrow.
US stocks began the day with modest enthusiasm and the S&P 500 opened about +13 points. It bobbed around that level for 90 or so minutes, trying to make a run at new all-time highs. The effort was weak however and it rolled over to flat for the middle of the day. We leaked about 10 points further in the afternoon and pushed upward in the final hour. All these moves were small and capital flow was light (94%), so investor conviction today was low. One can argue that markets were apathetic. The Treasury curve did little today as well, with yields dropping in the middle of the curve.
The lay of the land seems stable and the bullish view is the dominant one. Why the market isn’t gunning for 6147 is a current curiosity. The NASDAQ 100 printed a new all-time high today so mega tech is following the script. Perhaps it simply needs to lead the way before the S&P 500 follows suit.
Bolt-from-the-blue risk remains the only risk to the bullish projections. While this is *always* the case, the BFTB risk has increased since Liberation Day and the Israel/US/Iran conflict. It’s shrinking relative to where it was last week but it’s still higher than usual. We are a Trump tweet, an Iranian sneak attack, or a presently unconsidered event away from meaningful downside.
Most US equity investors are comfortable with that, and so we head, albeit slowly, towards new highs.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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