The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Unsure.
We went a full day without any major tariff talks nor other news items. It showed in the market. US stocks didn’t do much. The S&P 500 opened up about 10 points, tried to run higher, turned around after an hour and bobbed and weaved around the unhc’d line. It wasn’t interesting and other markets were quiet too. Treasury yields came in small, Fed Funds moved 1-2 bips, commodities settled down mostly, and the Dollar rallied a little. Capital flow confirmed the uninteresting nature of trading today with a very low print of 75%.
After so many fireworks it makes sense for some calm. We don’t have a clue as to how the market will gyrate tomorrow, or whenever the next catalyst breaks, but maybe we’re in for a multi-session stretch of non-drama. Economic news this week is of the ho-hum variety and since most of it reflects March activity, it would be very surprising to see any tariff influence yet. Perhaps Thursday’s weekly jobless data will show something (225k vs 223k prior). Thursday’s data will reflect last week’s claims so there’s potential for tariff-based effects but also DOGE-based. So far, weekly jobless data has been rock-solid and gliding along at historically enviable levels. Here’s the data for the year so far.
The long-term median is about 324k and we’re at 222k for the year.
I don’t think the market would get spooked until/unless we see a 300k print. That would be quite a shock. It is highly unlikely as well but it does represent a risk.
That’s waaaaay off in the distant future of Thursday though so relax and enjoy.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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