The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Ordinary
Overseas markets rallied a bit and our did the same. Headlines were pedestrian and bulls pushed the S&P 500 up a little today. Tech led the way and the Treasury yield curve flattened. Capital flow was 106%, a healthy level that maybe suggests summer doldrums are behind us and investors are back-to-business.
On the calendar, tomorrow looks quiet. I would expect another day like today.
Maybe the next inflation tidbits will stir up market action.
On Wednesday at 8:30 AM, PPI releases (3.3% est vs 3.3% prior). The next morning CPI releases (2.9% est vs 2.7% prior).
Investors are sensitized to the inflation situation and we’re in a situation where we really need a bullseye or a slightly cooler print to get a bullish reaction from stocks. If the print is hot, obviously that’s bad for stocks. If the number is too cool though, that would be just as bad for stocks. It would confirm the view that the economy is slowing sharply, as suggested by the nonfarm payrolls data last week. A too cool set of inflation prints will spike the fear of recession and open the risk-off floodgates.
I don’t know how well the needle needs to be threaded for investors to be happy but I don’t think there’s that much leeway.
In the meantime, markets are bumping around on normal volumes. Nothing to see here.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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